In a latest video by famend cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen, ominous predictions for Bitcoin efficiency in September have emerged. Cowen, recognized for his data-driven method to cryptocurrency evaluation, shared his insights relating to Bitcoin’s historic efficiency in September and its potential trajectory for the present 12 months.
Cowen acknowledged that September has historically been a difficult month for BTC, usually characterised by unfavorable worth actions. He emphasised that whereas historic traits recommend a purple month for Bitcoin in September, there are not any ensures, and occasional inexperienced September does happen.
The analyst highlighted that Bitcoin had skilled six consecutive purple September from 2017 to 2022. The typical return for Bitcoin in September has traditionally been round -6.6%, with an ordinary deviation that provides to the unpredictability of the cryptocurrency’s efficiency.
Analyzing Potential Worth Declines
Cowen then delved into the potential worth decline for Bitcoin in September. Given Bitcoin’s opening worth of just under $26,000 for the month, a 7% lower would deliver its worth to roughly $24,000. He additional identified that within the pre-halving 12 months of 2019, Bitcoin witnessed a 14% drop in September, probably pushing its worth all the way down to $22,000.
To bolster his argument, Cowen referred to a latest tweet during which he speculated a considerable likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $23,000 in September. Though he confused that this prediction is much from a assure, he underscored the seasonal sample, the downward momentum, and the latest month-to-month shut beneath sure help ranges as components that make a dip to $23,000 believable.
Furthermore, Cowen mentioned the typical returns in all pre-halving years for the month, revealing a drop of roughly 17.7%, which may lead to Bitcoin buying and selling at round $21,500 if historical past repeats itself.
On August’s efficiency, Cowen famous that Bitcoin had already skilled a ten% drop. Whereas August’s long-term common is roughly 21%, averaging solely the final two pre-halving years (2015 and 2019) suggests a extra modest -11% to -12% common drop. This highlights that Bitcoin could observe an identical sample in September, probably softening the blow to round $24,000.
The present worth of Bitcoin (BTC) is $25,813, with a 24-hour worth change of -0.99%. Because the main cryptocurrency, Bitcoin instructions a major market cap of $502,654,681,515, securing its place because the primary cryptocurrency by market capitalization. Up to now 24 hours, Bitcoin has skilled a buying and selling quantity of $17,603,174,408, making it the second most actively traded cryptocurrency by quantity. This excessive buying and selling quantity signifies robust curiosity and exercise throughout the Bitcoin market, contributing to its liquidity.
Navigating Bitcoin’s Cyclical Nature
Cowen emphasised that regardless of the uncertainty, the seasonality of Bitcoin and the prevailing downward momentum make a check of the $23,000 stage extremely seemingly within the close to future, probably in September or October.
Cowen mirrored on the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s worth actions in a broader context, stating that it usually alternates between bullish and bearish phases. He confused that in pre-halving years, Bitcoin tends to rise considerably throughout the first half and expertise declines within the latter half. In line with Cowen, this sample is designed to “wreck” each bulls and bears earlier than coming into a interval of sustained development.
He additionally identified that whereas BTC could face challenges within the brief time period, as soon as quantitative easing (QE) returns and the cryptocurrency market sentiment improves, altcoins may regain momentum.
In conclusion, Cowen cautioned his viewers to stay vigilant in September, traditionally a month of purple returns for Bitcoin. He urged warning, citing previous information and market dynamics as indicators of a probably difficult month forward. Whereas the long run stays unsure, Cowen’s data-driven evaluation serves as a invaluable useful resource for these navigating the turbulent waters of the cryptocurrency market. Traders and fans will undoubtedly watch intently to see if Bitcoin’s efficiency aligns together with his predictions within the coming weeks and months.
Featured picture from Pixabay and chart from TradingView.com
